It pays to lock in your gas price now, but expect higher rates
Latest news: Gas prices have stabilized and fallen slightly again despite the reopening and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A two-week ceasefire is also having a moderating effect on gas prices. However, gas prices remain higher than usual due to the war in the Middle East and low gas reserves.
Switching to a fixed-rate contract now could be a smart move, as suppliers have lowered gas prices slightly in response. Fixed-rate contracts are once again available with gas prices below €1.30 per m³, and suppliers are offering higher sign-up discounts. Do you expect the conflict to drag on and gas prices to rise again? Then now is a good time to lock in your rate.
Gas rate
€1.40 per m³
Up 14% since June last year
Average gas price from 20 energy suppliers in our energy comparison tool on
Gas Price Forecast for 2026
What will happen to gas prices in 2026?
To answer this, it’s best to look at the gas exchange (Dutch TTF). On this exchange, energy suppliers and suppliers trade in long-term contracts, known as “futures,” for natural gas.
Gas price forecast for the first half of 2026:
| Period | Market price per MWh | Consumer price per m³ |
|---|---|---|
| May | €40.880 | € 1.21 |
| June | €40.900 | €1.21 |
| July | €40,885 | €1.21 |
| August | €40.785 | €1.21 |
| September | €40.915 | €1.21 |
| October | €40,770 | € 1.21 |
Source: Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures. Last price check: June 2026. Consumer price excluding procurement costs per m³.
What to Do About Your Energy Contract
Whether you have a current energy contract or need to renew soon, here are your options.
➔ Are you on a variable-rate contract? Since April 1, you’ve been paying a significant portion of the increased market price. That means you’re facing higher costs now, but you’ll also benefit immediately if prices drop again soon. Don’t expect a quick drop as long as the conflict continues.
➔ Are you considering a dynamic contract? This could be cheaper in the coming months if gas prices drop. Since you’ll be using little gas in the coming months, the financial risk is lower. This way, you can wait and see how gas prices develop and lock them in again around October.
➔ Do you want to sign a fixed-rate contract? Fixed rates have risen due to higher procurement costs. You’re now paying more for price certainty than you were just over a month ago. Suppliers are also adjusting their welcome discounts even more quickly now. So be sure to compare what’s available to find the cheapest contract for your situation.
Short term: Gas prices spike due to geopolitical tensions
Currently, futures indicate that the gas price for 2026 will remain structurally higher in the coming months. This is caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East combined with very low gas reserves.
The war between Iran and the U.S. has significantly increased uncertainty in the energy market. As a result, the gas price on the exchange has risen and is now fluctuating around €40–€45 per MWh. By comparison, in February it was still around €30 per MWh.
This directly affects consumers because suppliers pass on the high gas price in all energy contracts. And now that the replenishment season has begun in April, suppliers must purchase gas at very high prices.
What if the conflict persists? Three scenarios for 2026
If the Middle East gas conflict persists, the following three scenarios are realistic for the development of the gas price on the exchange:
| Scenario | Assumption | TTF Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | Short conflict, limited disruption in the Strait of Hormuz | €45–52 per MWh |
| Risk 1 | Disruptions persist through Q3 2026 | €55–65 per MWh |
| Risk 2 | Complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz + ongoing Qatar outage | €80–100 per MWh |
Source: Rabobank scenario analysis, March 2026.
Medium term: increased LNG supply could put downward pressure on prices
In the medium term, energy analysts still expect global LNG supply to grow. However, the war in the Middle East is fundamentally changing the outlook for 2026 and 2027.
It is highly uncertain whether the previously expected annual average of €30 per MWh can still hold up given current developments. A significant drop in gas prices is no longer expected for the remainder of 2026.
Causes of the more abundant gas market:
- Increased LNG supply from the U.S., Canada, and Qatar.
- New LNG facilities in the US, Qatar, and Australia are increasing global production.
- Additional LNG tankers enable gas to be transported more quickly and flexibly.
- Europe generally pays more than other regions, leading U.S. suppliers to choose European destinations more often.
Factors slowing or counteracting the price decline:
- Qatar, which until recently accounted for 17% of LNG supply, has become an unreliable source in the short and medium term due to severe damage to its gas facilities resulting from attacks by Iran.
- U.S. exports cannot fully compensate for the loss of Qatari supply, certainly not in the short term.
- Should the Strait of Hormuz (once again) become very difficult to access, this could disrupt supply for the longer term.
Outlook for Europe:
- According to TNO, the massive supply of LNG will lead to lower European gas prices starting in 2026.
- The natural gas market continues to recover from the loss of Russian and Groningen gas.
- Gasunie Transport Services (GTS) expects that sufficient gas will be available to meet European demand.
If these trends continue, the gas market could gradually become less tight by 2026. This would eventually lead to more stable and lower gas prices, although the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and short-term price spikes.
Long-term gas price forecast
Market price trends: Energy market experts predict, with some caution, that the market price will continue to decline in the long term between 2025 and 2031. It is expected that there will likely be less tightness in the gas market through 2029, due to the greater availability of liquefied natural gas.
A potential halving of the exchange gas price from €0.46 per m³ to €0.23 per m³ cannot be ruled out by 2030, according to market experts, including TNO.
Consumer gas price trends: The gas price paid by consumers is actually expected to rise after 2026. This is due to new regulations in 2027 and 2028 that will make gas more expensive.
- Starting in 2027: The blending obligation (BMV) for green gas takes effect. As a result, households will pay a surcharge for the share of green gas in every cubic meter of gas.
- Starting in 2028: the CO₂ allowance compensation (ETS2) will take effect. Energy suppliers will then be required to purchase CO₂ allowances for every cubic meter of gas they sell to households.
According to current projections, households may pay an additional €0.18 to €0.20 per cubic meter of natural gas by 2030 due to these developments.
This affects the gas price forecast
What actually influences future gas price trends?
All sorts of factors directly influence future gas prices. Factors that play a role in gas prices:
- The weather: During cold weather, there is greater demand on gas supplies because more households are heating their homes. This causes gas prices to rise.
- Geopolitical unrest: Conflicts in regions that are important to us for the supply of gas or LNG can drive up gas prices.
- Speculation: Media reports cause speculators to buy or sell gas futures, which can lead to significant price fluctuations.
- Supply disruptions: For example, if a gas pipeline breaks down or fewer ships carrying LNG are heading our way, this has a negative effect on gas prices. A faulty gas pipeline in Norway, for instance, can cause gas prices to rise by as much as 10%.
- Exchange rates: Because fossil fuels are purchased in dollars, a favorable exchange rate of the dollar against the euro has a positive effect on the gas price.
- Laws and regulations: Changes in government legislation requiring certain targets to be met can cause gas prices to rise or fall, such as the green gas mandate.
Can you say anything about the trend in gas prices? Yes and no.
Some factors are predictable:
- If the weather gets warmer, the gas price usually falls
- If it gets colder (for an extended period), gas prices rise accordingly
- Geopolitical unrest (in countries important for gas supply) drives up gas prices
But the combined effect these factors have on gas prices is highly complex and difficult to predict with certainty in advance.
Still, you can make some predictions about the expected gas price by looking at the price that traders pay for gas at a later date.
Trading on the gas exchange works as follows:
- Suppliers are currently trading for gas that will be delivered to customers at a later date.
- All currently known factors, such as the weather, producer capacity, and expected demand, are already factored into the trading price.
Futures prices therefore provide a good indication of the gas price expected at a later date.
The Dutch TTF dashboard explained:
| Contract | Last | Time (GMT) | % Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APR26 | 61,900 | March 20, 2026 | 0.078 | 30,535 |
| MAY26 | 61,915 | March 20, 2026 | 0.168 | 17,740 |
Source: Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures.
- Contract: This date indicates the contract’s expiration date.
- Price: This amount (excl. taxes) is the last traded price of the contract, expressed in €/MWh.
- Time (GMT): The last transaction took place at this time.
- Change %: The percentage change in price compared to the previous trading day.
- Volume: This indicates the number of futures traded.
How do you calculate the retail gas price?
The expected TTF exchange prices are in euros per MWh. The gas price for consumers is calculated in cubic meters.
To calculate the expected consumer gas price, including VAT and energy tax, follow these steps:
For 2026:
- Multiply the MWh price by 0.009769
- Multiply this amount by 1.21
- Then add the energy tax of €0.7267
Suppose the market price is 31,108 per MWh. Then the base consumer price is €0.30 (0.009769 x 31,108). The consumer gas price, including VAT and energy tax, would then come to €1.09 (€0.30 x 1.21 + €0.7267).
Please note: this amount does not yet include the purchase cost per m³. This varies by supplier and averages about 8 cents per m³.
Hoeveel kost een m3 gas inclusief belasting in 2026?
Een m3 gas kost in 2026 gemiddeld €1,41. Dat bedrag bestaat uit drie componenten: de inkoopprijs gebaseerd op de TTF beursprijs (circa €0,41), de energiebelasting (€0,7267 per m3 in 2026) en btw (21%). Daar bovenop rekent de leverancier zijn eigen inkoopkosten door, gemiddeld zo'n €0,08 per m3. De energiebelastingvermindering van €628,96 per jaar verlaagt je jaarrekening, maar staat los van de prijs per m3.
Wanneer is het slim om een vast energiecontract af te sluiten?
Nu de gasprijs daalt door de vredesdeal, zijn vaste contracten relatief voordelig geprijsd. Het stookseizoen start in oktober. Wie nu een jaarcontract vastlegt op circa €1,32 per m3 (de laagste prijs in juni 2026), betaalt die prijs ook als het conflict in het Midden-Oosten hervatten wordt en de gasprijs stijgt. Een dynamisch contract is aantrekkelijk als je rekent op een verdere daling en weinig gas verbruikt in de zomer.
Hoe komt de gasprijs op de beurs tot stand?
Het handelen op de gasbeurs werkt als volgt:
- Leveranciers handelen nu voor gas dat op een later moment geleverd wordt aan klanten.
- Alle bekende factoren — het weer, productiecapaciteit, verwachte vraag en geopolitiek — zijn al verwerkt in de handelsprijs.
De prijzen voor futures (de forward curve) geven daarmee een goed inzicht in de verwachte gasprijs op een later moment. Zo zie je direct wat energieleveranciers nu betalen voor gas dat ze in oktober aan jou leveren.
Hoe bereken je de consumenten gasprijs?
De verwachte TTF beursprijzen zijn in euro per MWh. De gasprijs voor consumenten wordt in m3 berekend.
Om zelf de verwachte consumentenprijs inclusief btw en energiebelasting te berekenen:
Voor 2026:
- Vermenigvuldig de MWh-prijs met 0,009769
- Vermenigvuldig dit bedrag met 1,21 (btw)
- Tel de energiebelasting van €0,7267 per m3 op
Voorbeeld: bij een beursprijs van €42,- per MWh is de kale consumentenprijs €0,41 (0,009769 x 42). Inclusief btw en energiebelasting kom je op €1,22 (€0,41 x 1,21 + €0,7267). Daar bovenop rekent de leverancier gemiddeld zo'n €0,08 per m3 aan inkoopkosten, wat uitkomt op circa €1,30 per m3 totaal.
Sources and expertise
- Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures
- Energy Price Monitor TNO Vector
- RTV Noord: Hope for a halving of gas prices by 2029
- ABN AMRO: Energy Market Research 2026
- Gas price trends: gas price chart